With inflation the topic du jour, most emerging market governments have been hiking interest rates. Not Turkey. Despite price growth surging above 20 percent, the central bank has cut rates for three consecutive months. The root factor behind these odd decisions is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who believes that high interest rates are the cause of inflation: a position that puts him in opposition to mainstream economics.

The lira has once again begun a precipitous slide, which quickened sharply when the president announced an “economic war of independence”. With little to suggest that Mr Erdogan is about to change his views, and Turkey significantly reliant on imports, the immediate picture looks bleak. The economic risks are fairly clear: if the government continues to hold rates down, most analysts expect inflation to accelerate. So far this hasn’t led to a bank run, but it could raise pressure on the financial sector, nonetheless. Some are speculating that capital controls could be on the way.

The political and social risks are a little foggier, but no less worrying. Mr Erdogan seems to be betting on a weaker currency spurring growth before he has to face the polls in 2023. There is no certainty that this will work, and no certainty he will make it there. Right now, most reliable polls suggest he would lose a fair vote, and there remain questions around how long his political alliances will last. If the country enters a period of hyperinflation, it will hit ordinary Turkish citizens hard, also raising social stability risks. A politician from the ruling party has suggested that people should simply eat less, reminding onlookers of the possibility that poor communication could yet make things worse. The laws of economics suggest the government is on a hiding to nothing. Yet the closest thing Turkish politics has to a law is to never count Mr Erdogan out. More tumultuous times await as we see which of these wins through.